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Heroic Tavern Brawl Analysis (by F2K_Minntzu)

by - 7 years ago

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Written by Minntzu


Hey everyone, I’m Minntzu and this week I want to share my thoughts on the upcoming Heroic Tavern Brawl.

The Brawl will take place during week before Blizzzcon. The format is similar to arena with few differences:

  • Participants build their decks from their existing card pool
  • Entry fee is more, $9.99 USD or 1000 gold
  • Rewards are significantly better
  • Amount of runs is limited

For more details check out official post.

“We hope that our Heroic Brawl scratches the competitive itch
of the players looking for a high risk, high reward experience.” – Blizzard

Let’s have a look at the scale with rewards:

img_2725

I will reduce the scale to same “currency” – gold. Participants will be rewarded with Old Gods packs, so I’ll use statistics for them (source).

Let’s figure out first how much dust the average Old Gods pack are worth. Table for 713 and 413 packs opening together:

img_2773

Generally, you would need 80 dust to craft a card and 400 dust to craft all cards from average packs. Dust is more valuable because you can choose which cards you need more. Supposedly, people would craft 62% of the card of a full set (about 83 cards playable out of 134). Taken into consideration they already possess half of the cards (through pack openings), half of average pack gets disenchanted (average 16 dust per card), the value of 1 pack is equal to 150 dust. I rated random golden legendary as 2400 dust, because unfortunately only around 50% of them are playable, half will be disenchanted.

Now let’s complete the new table with Heroic Brawl equivalent rewards in gold:

img_2774

As we can see only players who get 6 and more wins will benefit. Important thing here is that if someone gained a victory, another lost that game. Though If every player had 50% winrate Blizzard’s repayment to all players would be just 60% of entry fee.

Let’s analyze a few situations:

  • 5 players. Someone has made 12 wins, means others went 0/3 (someone got 2/3 as best). Blizzard returns 2427 gold on average.
  • Suppose 3 players make 11/3 (later – “winners”). If they lost 9 games, there should be 8 more players who lost other 24 games and their score can be different. In worst case all 8 players finished with score 0/3, if “winners” lost 9 games against each other, then Blizzard refund is lowest: 1600 gold per player. Best case is if 1 player went 9/3, 7 others – 0/3, then profit is maximum: 1797 gold. I don’t see a reason to delve into matchmaking and find where the real average is, let’s assume it’s in the middle between worst and best cases: 1699 gold.
  • Using the same logic, I’ll count other groups. If 10/3 is best score in group average return is ~1338 gold, for 9/3 best it’s ~95% of the fee, for all the rest return is only 60-70%.

We can conclude:

  • This brawl will be beneficial for all players who’ll get 6+ wins, which is already 67% win rate.
  • The more bad players will participate, the better reward for the community is.
  • I personally expect a lot of great players, because 1000 gold is really expensive. I doubt most casual players want to take such huge risk, this will be a competition for pros. This means we won’t have much variety in scores, which we’d need to be in profit altogether. You should definitely try if you believe you can overcome 67% win rate.

Thanks for your attention!

 

fade2karma

Follow me on twitter @Minntzu or twitch.tv/minntzu.

 


Martin "OtakuMZ" Z.

Real life physician and afterhour card battler. Martin "OtakuMZ" contributes to the Hearthstone team of BlizzPro since late 2015. Additionally, he contributes analytic articles for Hearthstone and Gwent as a member of Fade2Karma and in his collumn on the Gwentlemen site. He is best known for his infographics which can be accessed at a glance at https://www.facebook.com/hsinfographics and https://www.facebook.com/gwentinfographics


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