by JR Cook - 10 years ago     show comments

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The Perfect Hand – Competitive musings on RNG

Turn 1: Innervate, Imp Master
Turn 2: Innervate, Violet Teacher
Turn 3: Coin, Power of the Wild, Hero Power
Turn 4: Savage Roar…Dead?

     I guess sometimes that happens. Is there anything you could have done to win that game? Obviously it depends, but that’s definitely a difficult game to win. This is [DKMR]Varranis from team Don’t Kick My Robot to tell you RNG sucks, but that’s ok. RNG is inherent in nearly every card game and it’s one of the reasons these types of games are so exciting and appealing.

     While I enjoy Chess now and then and respect the skill it requires to play at a high level, I’ve never gotten psyched to play Chess the way I get for Hearthstone. Similarly, watching Chess isn’t quite the same as seeing your favorite Warcraft character fly across the screen amid a smorgasbord of explosions and slobbering orcs. Some of what’s engaging about Hearthstone is its gorgeous graphics, but it’s the RNG that really makes it all pop. Watching Ragnaros’ fireball spiral before launching itself at a hapless minion or hero is an edge-of-your-seat moment captivating to both players and audience. While dismal for the vanquished, ripping a lethal Leeroy off the top of your deck is exhilarating. The tension created by the anticipated resolution of random variables turns simple moments of each game into enthralling spectacles.

     But you’re not here for spectacle. You’re reading this article because you want to play competitively. So let’s talk competitive. We generally define how skillful a game is by the number of decisions that game requires you to make. Hearthstone requires you to make A LOT of decisions. Hearthstone is deceptively simple. While it may not appear so, we would argue a single game of Hearthstone requires as many or more decisions than a game of Magic: the Gathering. The real difference maker is how Hearthstone handles attacking. Every attack you make in Hearthstone, whether at a fellow minion or hero, is a decision you are making that influences the outcome of the game. Since minions can attack each other, we would ascribe each attack you make with equal significance to casting a spell in Magic. Often your turn 2 minion is intended more as a delayed removal spell than an actual creature. Blizzard knew what they were doing when they designed minions with such dual-purposing. When a single card can do more varied tasks, you add decisions to the game, and thus, skill.

     Does inserting random factors into this decision paradigm remove skill from the game? The competitive Hearthstone community has been fairly vocal and unkind to the game’s random elements. Is RNG a blight upon the competitive scene? We think not. While certain cards (I’m looking at you Pagle) push the envelope of what’s acceptable, random elements add significant depth to the competitive Hearthstone experience.

     Random variables create much more interesting decision trees than a game with no random aspects. In Hearthstone, any single decision is likely to have multiple correct answers because your solution is dependent on how you define outside variables. Do you think your opponent is smirking behind their computer screen, holding their second Swipe, ready to clear a fresh wave of minions? Then the correct play is to only play one or two minions; preferably minions like Harvest Golem who are somewhat resistant to Swipe. Think your opponent is gripping their desk with no more outs, hoping you don’t unleash another volley of violent imps and demons? Then play those minions! Both these decisions are correct based on what you believe the state of the game to be.

     Many would likely argue the game came down to whether he had the second Swipe or not and it’s all luck either way. We’ve learned from significant experience that luck has much less to do with it than most think. Let’s consider the decisions that were made in this situation. We’ll refer to the dastardly, Swiping Druid as “opponent” and the stalwart Warlock Zoo player as “you.” At an earlier point in the game (let’s assume the previous turn), the opponent cast Swipe and cleared your board. The opponent decided to do this. This was likely one of perhaps four or five options he had available. It’s important to note that Swipe typically gains more value the longer your opponent waits and the less he removes minions since both these factors likely lead to more minions being hit by Swipe. If we’re assuming we’re on turn 4 or 5 of the game, saving the Swipe is a perfectly viable play. Playing a minion this turn and waiting another turn or two to Swipe could be a much more powerful play by your opponent. Adding a minion to the board also makes the Swipe more potent as your opponent can use it along with the Swipe to remove a larger minion. A play such as this, where you intentionally ignore incoming damage to progress your board, is typically referred to as using your life points as a resource. Life points are mostly irrelevant until they’re zero. You need to keep in mind how likely your life points are to become zero, but taking some damage now can often save you damage later or just flat out win you the game by allowing you to gain significant tempo. Your opponent needs to consider the likelihood of being able to answer future threats if he uses the Swipe now or the possibility of you pushing too much damage if he decides to save the Swipe.

     How does your opponent’s decision making change if we assume he has both Swipes in hand? It’s now more likely he plays Swipe since he knows he has another to deal with future threats. Your opponent should still consider, however, how valuable that Swipe could be on future turns. Having an answer to future threats does not change the fact that playing a minion this turn and Swipe on the following turn is probably a much more powerful play. Generally how we would consider this decision is to ask myself “Do I have to play the Swipe?” and “Does playing the Swipe put me very far ahead?” If we have to play the Swipe, clearly we play it. We feel we have to play a particular card if not playing it leaves me dead or in a position where our future decisions are severely limited. An example of this would be if not playing the Swipe would allow my opponent to favorably trade with every minion we play for the next several turns. On turn 4 or 5, it’s rare that a player would have to play a Swipe. If it is not necessary to play the Swipe, we would consider its impact on the game. If playing it will allow us to gain and maintain board dominance, then it is likely a good play. This is usually only possible if we already have a minion in play that can trade for the minion we expect my opponent to play on his next turn.

     Let’s assume the opponent has both Swipes and plays the first one, clearing your board. What do you do? You have 5 mana and your hand is Harvest Golem, Flame Imp, and Young Priestess. Your opponent will have 6 mana on the following turn and currently has an empty board. Obviously, you’re not aware that the opponent has the second Swipe (he’s not streaming, and even if he was, you’re not going to be a bad sport and peek). Playing all three minions will leave you with just a Damaged Golem if your opponent Swipes and Shapeshifts. If your Priestess buffs the Flame Imp, you’ll be left with a 3/2 Imp or a 2/2 Harvest Golem. If he doesn’t Swipe, Young Priestess could eventually buff your minions out of range of the dreaded spell’s peripheral damage. Playing just the Harvest Golem and using Life Tap makes you less susceptible to Swipe but also gives your opponent the opportunity to build his board.

     We would likely assume it is more likely than not that my opponent does not have the second Swipe this early in the game. However, the circumstances under which he played the first Swipe could influence this conclusion. Did my opponent have to play the Swipe? Did playing the Swipe put him very far ahead? If the answer to either of those questions is no or most likely no, we would be suspicious that the opponent has the second Swipe as his actions indicated he did not value the first Swipe as highly as he should have if it was his only copy in hand.

     In this particular situation, we would likely play all three minions. As a Warlock Zoo player, it’s important that you maintain board control. The tipping factor for us is the Young Priestess. The Priestess means you should be able to retain at least one reasonable minion even he your opponent does Swipe on turn 6. If he does not Swipe on turn 6, playing the Priestess now makes it more likely your minions will survive the second Swipe or other removal. Another large factor in this decision is Life Tap. Even if our opponent does Swipe, Life Tap allows us to refuel our hand with threats. One of the biggest draws to playing Warlock is the consistency Life Tap affords you. Life Tap and cards like Azure Drake and Tracking improve consistency, increase the number of decisions in a game, and minimize RNG.

     As outlined above, there’s a lot more to a particular situation than who draws the better hand. Making correct decisions based on your understanding and anticipation of outside variables is crucial to being successful at Hearthstone and reducing the impact of RNG. Skill in Chess requires rote memorization. Skill in Hearthstone is a form of memorization. It’s memorizing particular common circumstances and board states. A deck will perform similarly from game to game. Play enough games against a particular deck and you’ll be able to anticipate when they have the answer they need or are about to play a large threat. The random aspects of Hearthstone keep the game fresh by reducing how much skill is dependent on memorization and increasing the extent to which it relies on your ability to read your opponent’s plays and respond accordingly.

[DKMR]Varranis streams every Sunday from 10 AM – 4 PM EST at http://www.twitch.tv/varranis. You can find all of DKMR’s streamers on their website with times and the days they stream!

Written by [DKMR]Varranis
Discussions about this topic brought to you by Team [DKMR]

Decks to watch out for

While Warlock Zoo is still very popular, we’ve seen a huge uptick in Warrior Control. The list below did well in a recent NESL tournament and is fairly indicative of most builds you’ll see. Warlock Giants is still a force to be reckoned with. While not as prominent as Zoo, we’ve included our most current Warlock Giants list below. Rogue has also been popping up a lot more. And it’s not just Miracle Rogue anymore! We’ve included Savjz’s recent midrange Rogue below. While Sprint is a little slow against the aggressive decks, it’s excellent against control decks like Warrior. Lastly, we’ve included the Druid Tokens list I’ve been using on the ladder to much success.